Перегляд за Автор "Kuzheliev, M. O."

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Econometric models of monetary policy effectiveness in Ukraine
(ТОВ «ФІНТЕХАЛЬЯНС», 2019) Baranovskyi, O. I.; Kuzheliev, M. O.; Zherlitsyn, D. M.; Sokyrko, O. S.; Nechyporenko, A. V.; Жерліцин, Д. М.
The main task forthe Central Bank is ensuringthe stability of the national currency. For this purpose, it tends to use traditional monetary regulation instruments. There are interest rates regulation, currencies intervention, administrative restriction, money supply adjustmentand so on. A significant number of these traditional tools are effective. However, it is very difficult to assess the effectiveness of the regulators influence.Therefore, the purpose of the work is to define the theoretical substantiation of the basic monetaryregulationinstruments effectiveness and estimate itsinfluence onthe economy growth indicatorsin Ukraine.This article is based on the theoretical principles and methods of macroeconomic analysis; the system approach methods to define the main monetary regulation instruments offinance system and economy. The study presents a regression models with pairedandmultiple variables. For these models R-Studio instruments are the main tools of quality estimation and results interpretation.The article shows the results of statistical analysis of national currency rate and consumer price indexwhichis based on open data of Ukraine economy trends for the period from 2007till2019.Traditionallyeconometric methods are used to find out long run relationships betweenbasic economyindicators (agriculture and industryoutputs, average salary, stock indexgrowth etc.) and both monetary informationandregulation instruments.Authors developthe regressive modelsof influence of Central Bank regulation instruments ofmonetary and economic stability.The paper presents conclusions regarding trends and problems in the implementation of Ukraine’s monetary policy, it’sinfluenceson the currency stability and economic growth trends.Implementation of the proposed measureswill increase monetary policy effectiveness and define the directions of the further research in forecasting inflationary and course-forming factors of the development of the national economy and financial system of Ukraine. Thekey focus of further research is to define an adequate indicator that determines the real level of inflation, which must evaluate a whole range of factors reducing the real value of money.
Сryptocurrency market trends and fundamental economic indicators: correlation and regression analysis
(ТОВ «ФІНТЕХАЛЬЯНС», 2021) Baranovskyi, O. I.; Kuzheliev, M. O.; Zherlitsyn, D. M.; Serdyukov, K.; Sokyrko, O. S.; Жерліцин, Д. М.
The first cryptocurrency was born in 2008. Already today, virtual financial assets and tokens are a significant part of trading in global financial markets. The cryptocurrency market capitalization currently exceeds 600 billion U.S. dollars. However, there is a lot of discussion about cryptocurrency functions and the correlation between Bitcoin prices and the basic economic indices. Therefore, the purpose of the paper is to define the statistical substantiation of the influence of fundamental economic indicators on the market of virtual financial assets and the possibility of using cryptocurrency as the investment assets. This article is based on the theoretical principles and methods of econometric analysis; the system approach methods to define the main vehicles and trends of the international financial market. The study presents correlation analysis, regression models with paired and multiple variables. For these models, R-Studio instruments are the main tools of quality estimation and results interpretation. The article shows the results of the correlation analysis of Bitcoin’s U.S. dollar price dynamics and changes in the main stock, monetary market indicators, cryptocurrencies market tendency, levels of the United States fundamental economic indicators for the period from 2014 to 2021. Traditional multifactorial regression models are used to determine the level and the impact of individual indicators of the world stock market at the U.S. dollar price of Bitcoin. A comparison of the level of volatility of key investment financial assets in the market of cryptocurrencies and stock markets is carried out. The authors determine the level of correlation dependence and make a regression model of the impact of fundamental economic indicators and stock market trends on the dynamics of U.S. dollar prices for key cryptocurrencies. The article presents conclusions on trends and problems of using cryptocurrencies as an investment asset, considering volatility and profitability. Implementation of the results allows to clarify the economic essence of cryptocurrencies as a specific financial vehicle, as well as improving the existing models of investment management, considering the statistical characteristics of the virtual financial assets. The main direction of further research is to build models of medium-term prediction of prices for the main cryptocurrencies as an investment asset in conditions of changes in global financial markets, which must consider the fundamental economic indicators of the world economy and trends on key stock and commodity markets.